Show Me Your Receipts and I'll Predict This Week's Best Performing Emails

If I could see nothing but your receipts, I could still predict which emails will get the most clicks this week.

Not your brand story.
Not your content calendar.
Not your “ideal customer avatar” document.

Just what people have already paid for.

Your customers vote with their wallets. Every receipt is a short story about what they value, when they buy, and how often they come back. Yet most email marketers ignore it and keep guessing what to send next.

In this article, I'll show you how to turn those receipts into a simple system you can use to plan emails that feel personal, land in the inbox, and get more clicks without new tools or complex tech.

Why Receipts Are The Most Honest Data You Have

We ask subscribers what they want in surveys.
We infer their interests from link clicks.
We try to read between the lines of replies.

All of that has value, but none of it is as honest as the receipt.

A receipt tells you:

  • What they bought

  • When they bought it

  • How much they spent

  • How often they come back

  • Whether they respond to discounts or buy at full price

This isn't guesswork. It's behavior.

From a direct response point of view, behavior always beats opinions. If someone has bought a specific product three times in the last six months, you already know they:

  • Care about that category

  • Trust you enough to come back

  • Are likely to respond to thoughtful, relevant follow up

That is the foundation of a more predictable, more profitable email strategy.

What Your Receipts Are Trying To Tell You

Let me break the receipt down into practical signals you can use.

1. Product purchased

This tells you what “job” your customer hired your product to do. Use it to send:

  • Cross sells that extend the first result

  • Education that helps them get more value

  • Case studies tied to that product

2. Date and timing

This tells you:

  • Buying cycles (weekly, monthly, quarterly)

  • Seasonality

  • How long it takes someone to buy again

If a big group of customers buys every 30 days, that's a signal that you should be emailing them around day 21 to encourage that next purchase.

3. Order value

Order size shows you how deep their current commitment is. It helps you decide:

  • Who to invite into higher tier offers

  • Who to nurture more before pitching something big

  • Who might need a low friction next step

4. Discount or no discount

Did they buy on sale, or at full price?

  • Discount buyers may need clear, value heavy offers and time limited deals

  • Full price buyers may respond well to premium positioning and insider access

Each of these signals becomes a lever in your email strategy.

Turning Receipts Into Smart Segments

Let me now move from theory to structure. You don't need complex tools for this. A simple export of your orders into a spreadsheet is enough.

Start with these core segments:

  1. New customers (first purchase in the last 30 days)

    • Goal: Welcome, onboard, and help them get a win quickly.

    • Emails: How to use the product, fast win tutorials, “what to expect next.”

  2. Repeat customers (2+ purchases)

    • Goal: Deepen trust and increase lifetime value.

    • Emails: Cross sells that make sense, early access, loyalty rewards.

  3. High value customers (top 10 to 20% by spend)

    • Goal: Treat them like insiders.

    • Emails: Priority support, VIP invites, personal check ins.

  4. Category based segments (by product type)

    • Goal: Make content feel tailored.

    • Emails: Product specific tips, stories, and upgrade paths.

  5. Discount driven vs full price buyers

    • Goal: Show the right type of offer.

    • Emails:

      • Discount driven: clear deals with deadlines.

      • Full price: emphasis on depth, quality, and exclusivity.

Notice that all these segments are built from receipts, not from vague tags. They reflect what people did, not what they said.

From Segments To An Email Calendar

Once you have segments, building a high performing email calendar becomes easier.

Here’s a simple 4 week structure:

Week 1: New customers

  • Email: “You just bought [X] Here's how to get the most out of it in 10 minutes.”

  • Why: Reduces refunds, increases satisfaction, and opens the door for later sales.


Week 2: Repeat customers

  • Email: “People who bought X often love Y next. Here's why.”

  • Why: Natural cross sell based on past behavior.


Week 3: High value customers

  • Email: “Private first look: a new upgrade we made with power users like you in mind.”

  • Why: Reward loyalty and invite them deeper.


Week 4: Category focused broadcast

  • Email: “You bought from our [category] line. Here's what people like you are doing with it right now.”

  • Why: Shows social proof and keeps the category top of mind.


You can also layer in timing triggers. For example:

  • 21 days after a consumable purchase: “Almost time for a refill?”

  • 3 days after a software purchase: “3 quick setups to get results this week.”


The more your emails match the journey that started in the receipt, the more they feel like helpful guidance, not random promotion.

👉 Want More Sales From Email? Follow This 80/20 Rule and Watch Your Numbers Climb

Receipts vs Guessing (And vs Social Ads)

Let’s look at this contrast between two marketers.

Marketer A: Guessing approach

  • Plans content around “themes of the month”

  • Sends the same email to everyone

  • Treats email like a small version of social media

Result: Some opens, some clicks, a lot of noise, and a vague sense that the list is “cold.”

Marketer B: Receipt driven approach

  • Pulls last 90 days of orders

  • Builds segments around products, timing, and spend

  • Writes emails that start from what the customer already did

Result: Fewer sends, more relevance, and more revenue per email.

Social media ads are great for discovery. You target interests and demographics and hope the algorithm finds people who might care.

Email has an advantage that social media ad don’t: you already know what your buyers did. Receipts give you the kind of signal that ad platforms only wish they could do.

If you’re not using that signal, you’re leaving money (and trust) on the table.

Your 30 Minute Receipt Review

You don’t need a big project to start.

Here’s a simple 30 minute action plan:

Export the last 90 days of orders.

1. Highlight: first time buyers, repeat buyers, and top spenders.
2. Group by product or category.
3. Write one simple email for each group that does one of three things:

  • Help them get more value from what they bought

  • Suggest a clear, logical next step

  • Invite them into deeper relationship or access


Then send those emails before you write anything else.

Your customers have already told you what they care about. It’s printed on every receipt. When you listen, your emails start to feel like a continuation of a decision they already made, not a new sale you're trying to force.

Now It's Your Turn

Today, pull your latest receipts and build at least three segments. Write one email for each. Let your data, not your ideas, lead the way.

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